CSP, Sep. 29, 2025: Refiners lose, retailers gain on gasoline margin Rising oil prices belie down factors for gasoline price

CSP, Sep. 15, 2025: Tougher times for gasoline retailers and motorists Oil the decider hasn’t decided; pump price jump may soon reverse

CSP, Aug. 25, 2025: Pump price slippage may soon reverse U.S. downstream bulks up a little

CSP, Aug 11, 2025: Gasoline price stability continues Retail margin shrinks again

CSP, Jul 28, 2025: Oil, Gasoline See Price Stability No summer fiesta for retailers or motorists yet

CSP, Jul. 14, 2025: Downstream gasoline margin: Refiners lose, retailers gain Modest oil price recovery halting gasoline price cuts

CSP, Sep. 29, 2025: Refiners lose, retailers gain on gasoline margin Rising oil prices belie down factors for gasoline price September 29, 2025 CSPDailyNews.com Article: The national average retail price of regular-grade gasoline slipped 1.9 cents per gallon (CPG) in the past two weeks, to $3.27 a gallon , according to the most recent Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets. Decline had been indicated, because of seasonal demand decline and year-on-year weak demand, and because some refining issues and a pipeline problem had been resolved. But instead, the chief indicator now is for a rise at the pump, assuming higher crude oil prices are sustained. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up $3.43 per barrel in the past two weeks, reaching $65.72 per barrel on Sept. 26. It is responding to mounting damage to Russia's petroleum facilities at the hand of Ukraine and to stronger international statements regarding sanctions on Russia and those who buy its oil. If oil prices don't quickly calm and take a step back, we may see gasoline prices climb soon. Although crude oil's recent rise amounts to 8.2 CPG, gasoline's track may be more muted considering the ongoing seasonal down curve for gasoline demand, generally weak gasoline demand and the downstream margin situation. U.S. refiners have lost a big chunk of margin on gasoline as oil rose and gasoline racks rack prices caved. Rack price declines are slowing now. Retailers, meanwhile, have reaped gasoline margin abundance, a 12.6 CPG improvement in the past two weeks. Margin on regular grade is momentarily perched at 41.1 CPG. Some of that retail margin growth may be forfeited soon. Motorists may well inherit some of that margin swell as retailers take stock and attend to pump price competition for weakening sales. Wholesale prices are still in retreat around the country, although the cuts have greatly slowed in latest days. Still, crude oil's recent price strength remains king of factors that are shaping gasoline's price path, and crude oil says, let's all ascend. Once a dramatic discount to its year-ago price, the current U.S. average retail gasoline is one single penny below what it was last year. In coming days, if oil's recent rise is sustained and is passed through, gasoline's year-ago discount may switch to a penalty; last year at this time the average price was dropping modestly. Click here for previous Lundberg Survey reports in CSP Daily News. Trilby Lundberg is publisher of the Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets. Lundberg Survey Inc. is based in Camarillo, California.

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